Race 1A

cayuga-lake-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Clark Uhl 20.9% 17.8% 14.5% 13.1% 10.5% 8.2% 6.3% 3.6% 2.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Charles Kilvert 12.3% 11.3% 12.2% 12.0% 10.8% 9.1% 8.3% 7.2% 7.8% 4.8% 2.3% 1.6% 0.3%
Gabby Rizika 13.5% 14.1% 13.9% 10.7% 9.9% 12.1% 9.0% 6.2% 4.6% 3.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1%
Alex Fowkes 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% 4.4% 5.1% 4.7% 6.3% 6.7% 8.8% 9.7% 13.2% 17.7% 15.8%
Gerard Eastman 9.0% 8.6% 11.9% 8.8% 9.9% 8.8% 9.1% 8.6% 8.0% 8.1% 5.4% 2.9% 0.9%
Brooke Shachoy 9.3% 8.3% 8.2% 9.1% 9.3% 10.0% 10.0% 8.8% 8.1% 7.2% 6.5% 3.8% 1.4%
Phillip Schofield 11.1% 11.7% 9.6% 10.2% 10.3% 9.9% 9.0% 8.8% 7.3% 5.7% 3.8% 1.9% 0.7%
Blake Stackpoole 5.2% 7.2% 5.6% 6.4% 7.1% 8.3% 8.9% 9.7% 10.8% 9.2% 9.8% 6.7% 5.1%
Ella Withington 5.8% 5.7% 5.6% 7.0% 7.9% 8.3% 8.1% 10.5% 9.4% 11.2% 8.4% 6.6% 5.5%
Greg Moore 1.8% 2.3% 3.1% 2.9% 3.3% 2.5% 4.4% 6.2% 6.7% 9.0% 12.5% 17.1% 28.2%
Sarah Smith 3.9% 5.3% 6.1% 7.2% 6.6% 7.3% 8.6% 9.8% 10.8% 9.1% 11.0% 8.6% 5.7%
Caroline Martocci 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 3.2% 3.7% 5.1% 4.6% 5.0% 6.2% 9.7% 11.4% 19.1% 25.9%
Tom O'Shea 3.5% 3.2% 3.8% 5.0% 5.6% 5.7% 7.4% 8.9% 8.9% 11.5% 13.4% 12.7% 10.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.