Race 3A

cayuga-lake-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Gabby Rizika 15.0% 12.6% 13.7% 11.6% 12.0% 8.8% 7.9% 7.2% 5.1% 3.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.4%
Clark Uhl 21.2% 17.6% 16.4% 13.0% 9.9% 8.0% 6.1% 3.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Blake Stackpoole 4.4% 5.1% 6.1% 7.9% 7.1% 8.7% 7.0% 10.3% 11.7% 9.5% 9.5% 7.4% 5.3%
Charles Kilvert 11.3% 12.9% 12.5% 11.9% 9.1% 9.3% 9.2% 7.6% 6.5% 5.2% 2.7% 1.2% 0.6%
Gerard Eastman 9.9% 9.5% 9.3% 10.0% 9.5% 9.3% 9.6% 9.6% 7.7% 5.6% 6.5% 2.7% 0.8%
Caroline Martocci 1.8% 2.8% 2.9% 3.3% 3.9% 3.2% 5.9% 6.1% 6.5% 10.2% 11.4% 19.6% 22.4%
Brooke Shachoy 8.9% 8.8% 9.1% 7.5% 10.4% 9.1% 8.9% 9.0% 9.1% 8.6% 5.0% 4.4% 1.2%
Phillip Schofield 9.9% 10.4% 11.0% 10.4% 10.5% 10.0% 10.1% 8.9% 7.6% 4.7% 3.8% 1.7% 1.0%
Ella Withington 5.5% 6.1% 5.2% 7.8% 7.5% 7.7% 8.8% 9.7% 10.8% 10.6% 8.7% 6.9% 4.7%
Sarah Smith 5.1% 4.8% 4.6% 6.4% 6.4% 8.7% 8.3% 8.6% 8.9% 10.8% 11.2% 9.2% 7.0%
Greg Moore 2.0% 1.5% 2.4% 3.2% 3.6% 4.7% 5.3% 5.3% 6.8% 9.6% 14.0% 15.1% 26.5%
Tom O'Shea 3.0% 4.7% 4.1% 3.8% 5.9% 6.4% 7.1% 7.1% 9.1% 11.3% 13.3% 13.7% 10.5%
Alex Fowkes 2.0% 3.2% 2.7% 3.2% 4.2% 6.1% 5.8% 7.2% 7.9% 10.0% 11.0% 17.1% 19.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.