Race 5A

cayuga-lake-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Gabby Rizika 14.2% 13.7% 14.0% 11.8% 11.8% 8.6% 7.7% 7.6% 4.6% 3.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.0%
Clark Uhl 20.4% 18.2% 16.3% 13.6% 9.3% 6.6% 6.6% 4.7% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3%
Caroline Martocci 2.2% 1.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 4.6% 5.2% 6.1% 6.7% 9.4% 13.8% 17.0% 24.8%
Ella Withington 4.9% 6.7% 5.9% 6.9% 7.4% 9.7% 8.8% 9.1% 9.5% 9.6% 10.4% 6.6% 4.5%
Gerard Eastman 9.0% 10.1% 9.2% 9.9% 9.5% 9.5% 9.0% 10.7% 7.9% 6.3% 4.5% 3.4% 1.0%
Greg Moore 1.9% 1.9% 2.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.6% 5.5% 8.0% 6.9% 12.9% 17.3% 28.1%
Charles Kilvert 14.0% 11.5% 11.8% 11.1% 10.2% 10.8% 8.0% 6.8% 7.4% 4.5% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Tom O'Shea 4.5% 4.3% 3.5% 4.4% 6.8% 6.9% 6.8% 8.4% 8.0% 12.8% 12.2% 12.3% 9.1%
Sarah Smith 4.6% 4.4% 5.1% 4.7% 6.6% 8.0% 7.6% 8.5% 11.1% 11.4% 10.5% 10.4% 7.1%
Alex Fowkes 3.4% 3.0% 2.8% 3.8% 4.8% 5.1% 6.2% 6.8% 8.7% 10.3% 11.8% 15.2% 18.1%
Brooke Shachoy 8.0% 9.5% 9.2% 10.2% 10.2% 8.1% 10.2% 8.9% 8.5% 6.9% 6.0% 3.2% 1.1%
Phillip Schofield 8.7% 9.1% 11.5% 10.2% 10.1% 9.9% 10.9% 7.8% 8.1% 6.6% 3.1% 3.0% 1.0%
Blake Stackpoole 4.2% 5.9% 5.3% 6.5% 6.7% 8.7% 9.4% 9.1% 9.2% 10.6% 10.8% 9.1% 4.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.