Race 8A

cayuga-lake-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Clark Uhl 21.1% 17.7% 14.4% 13.3% 10.3% 8.5% 6.3% 4.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Phillip Schofield 9.5% 10.3% 11.3% 10.2% 9.2% 10.8% 9.1% 10.2% 7.1% 5.4% 3.9% 2.2% 0.8%
Gabby Rizika 13.8% 15.0% 12.0% 11.5% 10.5% 10.7% 8.2% 7.6% 4.0% 3.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1%
Brooke Shachoy 7.5% 7.9% 9.3% 10.0% 10.5% 7.7% 9.2% 9.3% 9.2% 8.0% 6.5% 3.7% 1.2%
Alex Fowkes 3.3% 3.1% 3.6% 3.8% 4.5% 5.5% 5.3% 6.6% 10.0% 9.4% 12.6% 16.1% 16.2%
Charles Kilvert 12.5% 11.4% 12.9% 11.5% 11.7% 8.8% 9.5% 5.8% 6.8% 4.4% 2.7% 1.6% 0.4%
Sarah Smith 5.5% 4.8% 5.9% 6.9% 5.7% 6.3% 8.5% 8.7% 9.7% 9.4% 13.0% 9.4% 6.2%
Tom O'Shea 3.4% 4.6% 4.1% 4.7% 5.6% 6.0% 7.2% 8.9% 9.4% 11.3% 12.8% 12.4% 9.6%
Caroline Martocci 2.5% 1.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.9% 4.0% 4.2% 4.0% 7.3% 10.8% 11.4% 17.9% 25.8%
Ella Withington 7.0% 5.4% 6.1% 6.5% 7.9% 8.7% 9.3% 9.3% 8.5% 10.3% 9.1% 7.7% 4.2%
Blake Stackpoole 5.4% 5.8% 7.4% 6.2% 7.3% 9.7% 8.9% 10.8% 9.8% 8.8% 9.6% 6.2% 4.1%
Greg Moore 1.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 3.2% 4.1% 4.2% 6.1% 6.0% 8.7% 11.4% 18.3% 29.7%
Gerard Eastman 7.0% 10.1% 7.6% 9.7% 9.7% 9.2% 10.1% 8.6% 10.0% 8.4% 4.5% 3.4% 1.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.