Race 11A

cayuga-lake-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Clark Uhl 20.9% 17.5% 15.3% 12.9% 10.1% 9.2% 6.1% 3.8% 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Gerard Eastman 8.1% 8.3% 8.9% 9.5% 11.7% 9.5% 9.8% 8.6% 8.1% 8.4% 4.9% 2.6% 1.6%
Charles Kilvert 11.2% 10.7% 13.2% 11.6% 10.6% 10.6% 8.9% 8.8% 5.8% 3.7% 3.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Brooke Shachoy 7.3% 8.5% 8.5% 9.6% 11.3% 9.0% 8.7% 8.2% 9.0% 8.6% 6.1% 3.2% 2.0%
Caroline Martocci 2.6% 2.7% 2.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.9% 5.8% 5.7% 7.3% 8.3% 11.9% 18.6% 23.1%
Alex Fowkes 3.0% 3.4% 3.6% 3.0% 4.9% 5.0% 6.8% 6.1% 8.7% 9.7% 13.9% 15.3% 16.6%
Blake Stackpoole 6.4% 5.6% 7.2% 7.1% 6.6% 7.6% 8.5% 9.7% 9.8% 9.4% 9.3% 7.7% 5.1%
Tom O'Shea 3.2% 5.0% 4.7% 4.4% 5.3% 6.2% 6.9% 7.9% 10.2% 11.8% 12.7% 13.2% 8.5%
Sarah Smith 5.1% 4.7% 4.0% 6.1% 6.3% 7.1% 7.1% 9.8% 11.3% 9.6% 11.1% 9.3% 8.5%
Gabby Rizika 16.0% 12.9% 13.0% 12.7% 10.4% 8.5% 7.4% 7.0% 4.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.3% 0.2%
Ella Withington 5.8% 6.6% 8.1% 5.9% 7.8% 8.4% 9.7% 10.1% 9.1% 10.2% 8.3% 5.9% 4.1%
Phillip Schofield 9.1% 11.6% 9.8% 10.6% 8.1% 11.8% 9.0% 8.7% 7.2% 7.3% 3.6% 2.4% 0.8%
Greg Moore 1.3% 2.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.1% 3.2% 5.3% 5.6% 6.8% 8.4% 11.7% 19.2% 28.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.