Race 13A

cayuga-lake-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Clark Uhl 20.9% 17.1% 16.0% 11.1% 11.7% 8.5% 6.3% 3.6% 2.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Gabby Rizika 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 12.6% 11.0% 10.7% 6.7% 7.1% 4.9% 2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Gerard Eastman 7.4% 9.1% 9.8% 9.8% 9.2% 9.4% 9.4% 10.5% 9.0% 6.6% 5.0% 3.5% 1.3%
Brooke Shachoy 7.5% 8.0% 7.7% 11.0% 10.9% 8.4% 8.3% 10.3% 7.6% 8.9% 6.5% 3.2% 1.7%
Charles Kilvert 13.1% 13.3% 11.7% 10.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.2% 8.1% 6.1% 4.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%
Alex Fowkes 3.1% 2.8% 3.4% 4.1% 4.5% 4.8% 7.6% 5.4% 7.6% 10.5% 13.8% 17.1% 15.3%
Ella Withington 6.6% 6.0% 7.0% 7.9% 6.5% 7.2% 8.9% 9.8% 9.5% 11.6% 8.0% 7.6% 3.4%
Blake Stackpoole 5.8% 6.3% 6.1% 5.8% 6.6% 8.8% 7.9% 10.9% 10.3% 9.8% 10.3% 7.2% 4.2%
Phillip Schofield 9.9% 9.8% 12.2% 10.1% 10.1% 9.7% 9.3% 8.4% 7.4% 5.4% 4.6% 2.3% 0.8%
Sarah Smith 5.3% 5.5% 3.9% 6.4% 6.6% 7.3% 8.8% 8.9% 9.2% 10.2% 11.0% 10.0% 6.9%
Greg Moore 1.9% 1.2% 2.9% 3.6% 3.5% 5.1% 4.2% 4.8% 8.2% 9.1% 13.5% 15.0% 27.0%
Tom O'Shea 3.1% 4.9% 3.3% 4.6% 6.3% 5.8% 7.6% 7.7% 10.0% 10.1% 11.6% 14.4% 10.6%
Caroline Martocci 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 3.7% 4.2% 5.8% 4.5% 7.9% 9.0% 11.0% 16.9% 28.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.