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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+2.53vs Predicted
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2Washington College0.80+5.26vs Predicted
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3Princeton University2.35+0.48vs Predicted
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5SUNY Stony Brook0.90+2.20vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-1.00vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.89-2.39vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.52-2.76vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.47-0.70vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.47-1.70vs Predicted
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11Drexel University0.58-2.85vs Predicted
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12Villanova University0.26-2.91vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University-0.46-2.07vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.53-2.99vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University0.02-5.45vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-0.89-4.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.53St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.2%1st Place
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7.26Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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3.48Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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7.2SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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5.0Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.1%1st Place
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4.61Christopher Newport University1.890.1%1st Place
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5.24Columbia University1.520.1%1st Place
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8.3Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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8.3Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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8.15Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
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9.09Villanova University0.260.0%1st Place
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10.93Monmouth University-0.460.0%1st Place
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11.01Rochester Institute of Technology-0.530.0%1st Place
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9.55Syracuse University0.020.0%1st Place
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11.65U. S. Military Academy-0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Paper | 21.6% | 19.3% | 17.0% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 22.0% | 20.3% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 9.5% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 12.8% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 10.2% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Curtis Aaron | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| Veronica Lane | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 20.4% | 20.8% | 0.0% |
| Ian Taylor | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 15.0% | 19.2% | 22.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Sanders | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Suter | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 20.5% | 34.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.