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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University2.31+1.91vs Predicted
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2SUNY Stony Brook0.79+4.16vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.11+0.30vs Predicted
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4Washington College1.26+1.02vs Predicted
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5Villanova University1.57-0.71vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-0.81vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech-0.06+1.00vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University0.28-0.71vs Predicted
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10Drexel University-0.42-1.02vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.05-3.12vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-0.43-3.18vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech-0.06-5.00vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-1.29-3.26vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-2.71-2.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.91Christopher Newport University2.310.3%1st Place
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6.16SUNY Stony Brook0.790.1%1st Place
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3.3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.110.2%1st Place
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5.02Washington College1.260.1%1st Place
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4.29Villanova University1.570.1%1st Place
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5.19Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.1%1st Place
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8.0Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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7.29Syracuse University0.280.0%1st Place
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8.98Drexel University-0.420.0%1st Place
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7.88Princeton University0.050.0%1st Place
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8.82Columbia University-0.430.0%1st Place
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8.0Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.74Rochester Institute of Technology-1.290.0%1st Place
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12.4U. S. Military Academy-2.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 27.4% | 21.7% | 18.4% | 13.9% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Gilmore III | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Bennett | 22.1% | 19.8% | 17.7% | 15.0% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 9.9% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Gillette | 13.0% | 16.0% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Chris Trentham | 3.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Abigail Proko | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 15.9% | 19.8% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Zak Dasaro | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 6.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Casenave-Pere | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 17.2% | 17.0% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Wilson | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 39.3% | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| Clara Bartram | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 11.1% | 76.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.