← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University2.28+3.35vs Predicted
-
2University of Vermont1.77+3.82vs Predicted
-
3McGill University1.80+2.87vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.02+1.27vs Predicted
-
5Yale University0.23+5.41vs Predicted
-
6Tufts University0.69+3.36vs Predicted
-
7University of Rhode Island1.94-1.63vs Predicted
-
8University of Rhode Island2.20-3.33vs Predicted
-
9Maine Maritime Academy0.28+1.51vs Predicted
-
10Fairfield University0.64-0.75vs Predicted
-
11University of Rhode Island1.18-3.21vs Predicted
-
12Bates College0.02-0.88vs Predicted
-
13Wesleyan University-0.82+0.15vs Predicted
-
14Salve Regina University1.98-8.62vs Predicted
-
15University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.30-0.90vs Predicted
-
16Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.22-1.94vs Predicted
-
17Middlebury College-3.10-0.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.35Brown University2.280.2%1st Place
-
5.82University of Vermont1.770.1%1st Place
-
5.87McGill University1.800.1%1st Place
-
5.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.020.1%1st Place
-
10.41Yale University0.230.0%1st Place
-
9.36Tufts University0.690.0%1st Place
-
5.37University of Rhode Island1.940.1%1st Place
-
4.67University of Rhode Island2.200.1%1st Place
-
10.51Maine Maritime Academy0.280.0%1st Place
-
9.25Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
-
7.79University of Rhode Island1.180.1%1st Place
-
11.12Bates College0.020.0%1st Place
-
13.15Wesleyan University-0.820.0%1st Place
-
5.38Salve Regina University1.980.1%1st Place
-
14.1University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.300.0%1st Place
-
14.06Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.220.0%1st Place
-
16.5Middlebury College-3.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaire McCarthy | 17.0% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julien Brunet | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Nothacker | 12.8% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Wolnikowski | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Keller | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schryver | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Moffitt | 14.3% | 15.4% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Corinne Poitras | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| Lillian Vincens | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Meghan Haviland | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Herde | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 0.5% |
| Camille Britton | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 12.2% | 19.2% | 19.7% | 17.7% | 4.5% |
| Alex Bowdler | 10.1% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Gallagher | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 21.5% | 30.9% | 8.4% |
| Kyle Boucher | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 21.8% | 29.0% | 7.6% |
| Benjamin Dohan | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 77.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.