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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.48+6.66vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.12+7.21vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+5.84vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.33+3.96vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.23+3.43vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.81+4.20vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+0.84vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.97+1.47vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.75+1.48vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.35-1.76vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.53-3.62vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.93-5.94vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island3.09-4.06vs Predicted
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14Brown University2.50-2.83vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-2.49vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University1.39-0.68vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.61-5.79vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont2.80-7.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.66Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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9.21Harvard University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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7.96Yale University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.43Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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10.2Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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7.84Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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9.47Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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10.48Bowdoin College2.750.0%1st Place
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8.24Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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7.38Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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6.06Yale University3.930.1%1st Place
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8.94University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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11.17Brown University2.500.0%1st Place
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12.51Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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15.32Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
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11.21Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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10.09University of Vermont2.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Eli Burnes | 5.0% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Mack Fox | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Louisa Nordstrom | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Conner Harding | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Carter Pemberton | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% |
| Trevor Long | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| Matt Safford | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 3.6% |
| Wade Waddell | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Williford | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Shawn Harvey | 12.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Dakota Northrup | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Tucker Weed | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.6% |
| Frank Reeg | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 12.5% |
| Jennifer Killian | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 49.0% |
| Samuel Merson | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 7.2% |
| Thomas Harden | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.