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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.48+6.63vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+6.05vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.23+5.68vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.53+3.13vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.93+0.71vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.81+4.25vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.75+3.51vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+0.50vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.61+2.08vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.09-0.68vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.12-1.91vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.80-1.34vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.35-5.17vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.33-6.22vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.50-3.57vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.97-6.41vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-4.34vs Predicted
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18Salve Regina University1.39-2.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.63Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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8.68Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.13Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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5.71Yale University3.930.1%1st Place
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10.25Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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10.51Bowdoin College2.750.0%1st Place
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8.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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11.08Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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9.32University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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9.09Harvard University3.120.1%1st Place
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10.66University of Vermont2.800.0%1st Place
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7.83Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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7.78Yale University3.330.1%1st Place
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11.43Brown University2.500.0%1st Place
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9.59Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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12.66Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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15.11Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Trevor Long | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Conner Harding | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Christopher Williford | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Shawn Harvey | 14.0% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Carter Pemberton | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% |
| Matt Safford | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% |
| Mack Fox | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Charlie Hibben | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 5.1% |
| Dakota Northrup | 6.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Eli Burnes | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Thomas Harden | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.1% |
| Wade Waddell | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Louisa Nordstrom | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Tucker Weed | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 7.6% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| Frank Reeg | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 14.5% |
| Jennifer Killian | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 44.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.