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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.50+4.67vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.89+3.01vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.12+1.40vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.49+1.54vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.53-1.56vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-0.19vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-3.00vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.16-3.75vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.87-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.67U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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5.01Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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4.4University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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5.54George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
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3.44Georgetown University3.530.2%1st Place
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5.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.1%1st Place
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4.0St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.2%1st Place
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4.25Fordham University3.160.2%1st Place
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6.87Cornell University1.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Gartner | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 16.1% | 15.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 7.8% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 7.7% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 12.2% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 2.8% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 14.2% |
| Andy Reiter | 24.0% | 19.0% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 16.4% |
| Liam McCarthy | 15.9% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 15.6% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 1.9% |
| Roberto Stevens | 15.1% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.3% |
| Ethan Andersen | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 17.7% | 36.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.