Race 5B

chris-loder

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

70.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Thomas Harden 49.2% 24.7% 14.3% 7.4% 2.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Joey Lark 13.2% 20.1% 19.7% 17.5% 12.9% 10.9% 4.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1%
Jack Valentino 4.2% 4.4% 8.7% 8.2% 11.6% 16.9% 22.6% 14.7% 7.4% 1.3%
sumner strumph 9.4% 15.8% 19.2% 16.9% 17.3% 12.0% 6.4% 2.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Matthew Behr 2.0% 3.5% 2.5% 5.5% 6.1% 10.5% 15.3% 24.8% 20.1% 9.7%
Elena Gonick 8.8% 11.7% 12.3% 15.7% 17.7% 14.4% 12.3% 5.2% 1.9% 0.0%
Alexandra Talbot 9.6% 14.5% 16.0% 19.8% 16.7% 12.4% 7.4% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Maeve Glancy 2.4% 3.4% 5.5% 5.3% 9.9% 13.0% 18.5% 22.1% 14.8% 5.1%
Graham Hughes 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.6% 2.2% 3.8% 5.6% 13.4% 26.5% 44.6%
Arlo Fleischer 0.5% 1.2% 0.9% 2.1% 2.8% 5.1% 7.0% 13.0% 28.4% 39.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.