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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+7.05vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.07+8.47vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.97+8.08vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.24+1.46vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.56+3.23vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.30+3.52vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+4.40vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+0.85vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.09+1.29vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.81+1.77vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.15-0.80vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-1.88vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.71-0.44vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.23-4.29vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.24-5.24vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-3.93vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island3.09-6.76vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.95-2.55vs Predicted
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19George Washington University2.49-5.95vs Predicted
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20Harvard University2.84-8.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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10.47Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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11.08Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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5.46Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.23Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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9.52Dartmouth College3.300.0%1st Place
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11.4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.0%1st Place
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8.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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10.29Roger Williams University3.090.0%1st Place
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11.77Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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10.2Boston College3.150.1%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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12.56Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
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9.71College of Charleston3.230.0%1st Place
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9.76Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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12.07University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.0%1st Place
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10.24University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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15.45Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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13.05George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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11.73Harvard University2.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Wiley Rogers | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% |
| Nicholas Baird | 14.8% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Cole Harris | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Lewis Cooper | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% |
| Trevor Long | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| Carter Pemberton | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Sophia Reineke | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Mack Fox | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Matt Cappetta | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% |
| Jack Brown | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| Lucas Pierce | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% |
| Dakota Northrup | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Mark Davies | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 30.4% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 11.5% |
| Henry Burnes | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.