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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+5.65vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston4.34+6.51vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy4.34+5.53vs Predicted
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4Brown University4.49+3.64vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.66+5.96vs Predicted
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6University of Florida2.84+8.01vs Predicted
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7Harvard University4.52+0.65vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University5.19-2.84vs Predicted
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9Boston College4.89-2.88vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College3.00+3.64vs Predicted
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11University of Miami3.69+0.08vs Predicted
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12Yale University4.19-2.68vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont3.62-1.97vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-2.58vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-7.31vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University4.78-9.34vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63-5.73vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University2.92-4.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.65St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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8.51College of Charleston4.340.0%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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7.64Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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10.96Connecticut College3.660.0%1st Place
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14.01University of Florida2.840.0%1st Place
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7.65Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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5.16Georgetown University5.190.1%1st Place
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6.12Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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13.64SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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11.08University of Miami3.690.0%1st Place
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9.32Yale University4.190.0%1st Place
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11.03University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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11.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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7.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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6.66Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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11.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.0%1st Place
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13.66Old Dominion University2.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jackson Benvenutti | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| Robert Vann | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Fred Strammer | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Michael Marshall | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.2% |
| Max Famiglietti | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 25.8% |
| Alan Palmer | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 14.3% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Sinks | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 15.8% | 20.7% |
| David Hernandez | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 4.9% |
| Joseph Morris | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Coleman Bowen | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 6.2% |
| Samuel Blouin | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Cy Thompson | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Eamon Glackin | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.0% |
| Zach Runci | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 20.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.