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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University1.22+6.76vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.69+4.64vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.97+3.38vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.32+6.52vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.55-0.81vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.30-3.20vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida1.60-0.12vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-1.94vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.93+0.24vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.05-1.64vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island0.99-2.45vs Predicted
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12Tulane University1.34-4.99vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.32-0.01vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy0.15-3.00vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.52-3.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.76Northeastern University1.224.5%1st Place
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6.64Brown University1.696.6%1st Place
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6.38Roger Williams University1.976.7%1st Place
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10.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.321.2%1st Place
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4.19Yale University2.5515.1%1st Place
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2.8Stanford University3.3032.0%1st Place
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6.88University of South Florida1.606.9%1st Place
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6.06Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.777.9%1st Place
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9.24George Washington University0.932.6%1st Place
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8.36University of Hawaii1.054.5%1st Place
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8.55University of Rhode Island0.993.5%1st Place
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7.01Tulane University1.345.4%1st Place
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12.99Princeton University-0.320.6%1st Place
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11.0Maine Maritime Academy0.151.6%1st Place
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11.62Connecticut College0.520.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eva Ermlich | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Katherine McNamara | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Lucy Meagher | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Caroline Odell | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 15.5% | 8.9% |
| Emma Cowles | 15.1% | 17.0% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 32.0% | 22.4% | 16.6% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Avery Canavan | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 3.8% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 1.4% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Lucy Spearman | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Carly Mraz | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 18.2% | 46.0% |
| Jane Marvin | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 17.0% | 14.2% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 19.2% | 20.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.