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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.48+6.56vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.59+5.12vs Predicted
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3Cornell University3.14+5.91vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.53+3.06vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+2.70vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+1.67vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+1.46vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.56-1.04vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.14-0.37vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.75-3.46vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-2.74vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.78+1.98vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida2.27-1.09vs Predicted
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14Hampton University2.26-2.21vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.72-4.70vs Predicted
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16Fordham University3.16-7.35vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.89-3.51vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.80-1.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.56Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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7.12Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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8.91Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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7.06Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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7.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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7.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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6.96Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.63Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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6.54College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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8.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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13.98Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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11.91University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
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11.79Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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10.3George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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8.65Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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13.49Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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16.01Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jack Parkin | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Christopher Williford | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Trevor Long | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Hector Guzman | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Mack Fox | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Augie Dale | 10.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Caleb Niles | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 21.3% | 17.8% |
| John Whitehead | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 5.1% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 5.6% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 10.4% | 16.4% | 19.2% | 12.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 8.8% | 16.1% | 53.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.