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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.48+6.57vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+6.72vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College3.56+4.19vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.14+4.60vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+2.59vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.11vs Predicted
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7Cornell University3.14+1.70vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.53-0.91vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-1.38vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.59-2.81vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.75-4.54vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.78+2.02vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida2.27-1.08vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.72-3.90vs Predicted
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15Hampton University2.26-2.92vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.80+0.13vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.89-3.50vs Predicted
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18Fordham University3.16-9.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.57Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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7.19Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.6Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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7.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.7Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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7.09Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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7.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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7.19Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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6.46College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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14.02Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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11.92University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
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10.1George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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12.08Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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16.13Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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13.5Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.42Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Mack Fox | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 7.3% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Williford | 8.0% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jack Parkin | 9.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Augie Dale | 10.5% | 12.0% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Caleb Niles | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 23.3% | 16.1% |
| John Whitehead | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 5.3% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 5.4% |
| William Sunkler | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 55.2% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 18.6% | 12.7% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.