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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+7.66vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.48+5.57vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College3.56+4.19vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.14+4.58vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+2.64vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+1.73vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.75-0.68vs Predicted
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8Cornell University3.14+0.60vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.59-2.15vs Predicted
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10Fordham University3.16-1.10vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-2.75vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.78+1.96vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida2.27-1.09vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.72-3.91vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College3.53-7.95vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.89-2.50vs Predicted
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17Hampton University2.26-4.81vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.80-1.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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7.57Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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7.19Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.58Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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7.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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6.32College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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8.6Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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6.85Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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8.9Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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8.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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13.96Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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11.91University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
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10.09George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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7.05Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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13.5Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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12.19Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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16.01Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Fox | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Hector Guzman | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Long | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Augie Dale | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Jack Parkin | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Liam McCarthy | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Caleb Niles | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 21.1% | 17.3% |
| John Whitehead | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 4.7% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Christopher Williford | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Charney | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 19.4% | 12.5% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.9% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 5.5% |
| William Sunkler | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 15.5% | 54.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.