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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+6.88vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+6.27vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College3.56+4.21vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+3.63vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.49+6.09vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+2.36vs Predicted
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7Hampton University2.26+5.02vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.48-0.76vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.14-0.38vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.89+3.48vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.78+2.72vs Predicted
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12Cornell University3.14-3.03vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.53-6.00vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.27-2.24vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.59-8.11vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.75-9.67vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.80-0.85vs Predicted
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18Fordham University3.16-9.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.27St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.21Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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7.63Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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11.09George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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8.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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12.02Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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7.24Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.62Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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13.48Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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13.72Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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8.97Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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7.0Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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11.76University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
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6.89Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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6.33College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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16.15Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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8.37Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 3.1% |
| Mack Fox | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 5.7% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jackson McCoy | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Charney | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 19.2% | 12.7% |
| Caleb Niles | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 19.7% | 15.4% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Christopher Williford | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Whitehead | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 5.0% |
| Jack Parkin | 10.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Augie Dale | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 15.8% | 55.5% |
| Roberto Stevens | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.