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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.56+6.03vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.63vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.14+5.71vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida2.27+7.73vs Predicted
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5Cornell University3.14+3.41vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.59+0.76vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+0.54vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.48-0.92vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.92+0.35vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-1.47vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.78+2.67vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.75-5.55vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.49-2.10vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-6.33vs Predicted
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15Hampton University2.26-3.12vs Predicted
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16Fordham University3.16-7.58vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.80-0.86vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University1.89-4.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.03Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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7.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.71Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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11.73University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
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8.41Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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6.76Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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7.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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7.08Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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9.35Dartmouth College2.920.0%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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13.67Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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6.45College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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10.9George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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7.67St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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11.88Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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8.42Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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16.14Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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13.09Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McCoy | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| John Whitehead | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 5.3% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Jack Parkin | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Max Clapp | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Mack Fox | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Caleb Niles | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 21.1% | 15.7% |
| Augie Dale | 10.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 3.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% |
| Liam McCarthy | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 5.3% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| William Sunkler | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 15.2% | 56.2% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 17.8% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.