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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+5.37vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.59+4.95vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.62vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.48+3.02vs Predicted
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5Hampton University2.26+6.78vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.56+0.84vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.14+1.43vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-0.19vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-0.81vs Predicted
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10Cornell University3.14-1.26vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-3.23vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.78+1.84vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.92-3.72vs Predicted
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14Fordham University3.16-5.82vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.49-4.00vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.80+0.08vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.89-3.66vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida2.27-6.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.37College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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6.95Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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7.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.02Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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11.78Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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6.84Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.43Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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7.81St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.19U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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8.74Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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7.77Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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13.84Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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9.28Dartmouth College2.920.1%1st Place
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8.18Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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11.0George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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16.08Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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13.34Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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11.76University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Parkin | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Hector Guzman | 8.0% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 5.4% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Jackson McCoy | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Liam McCarthy | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Mack Fox | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Trevor Long | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Caleb Niles | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 21.7% | 15.9% |
| Max Clapp | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 3.0% |
| William Sunkler | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 14.6% | 54.9% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 18.8% | 11.9% |
| John Whitehead | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.