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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.16+7.83vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.86vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.75+3.46vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.48+3.27vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+2.67vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.10vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+1.45vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.53-0.98vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.14-0.36vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.59-2.82vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College3.56-3.82vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.89+1.66vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.72-2.79vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.27-2.24vs Predicted
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15Hampton University2.26-2.97vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.78-2.16vs Predicted
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17Cornell University3.14-8.17vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.80-1.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.83Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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7.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.46College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.27Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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7.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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8.1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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7.02Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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8.64Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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7.18Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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7.18Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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13.66Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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10.21George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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11.76University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
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12.03Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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13.84Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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8.83Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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16.01Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Stevens | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Augie Dale | 9.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Long | 7.3% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Mack Fox | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McCoy | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Jack Parkin | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Charney | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 14.2% | 20.0% | 14.9% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| John Whitehead | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 10.1% | 5.7% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 5.7% |
| Caleb Niles | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 21.7% | 15.6% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| William Sunkler | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 8.6% | 17.0% | 53.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.