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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+6.79vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.68vs Predicted
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3Hampton University2.26+9.20vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.75+2.12vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.48+2.16vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.56+0.92vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+1.31vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.53-1.05vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.72+1.25vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.59-2.99vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.89+2.37vs Predicted
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12Cornell University3.14-3.15vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida2.27-1.24vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-6.27vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.60-4.39vs Predicted
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16Tufts University3.14-7.39vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.78-3.26vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.80-2.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.79Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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7.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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12.2Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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6.12College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.16Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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6.92Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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6.95Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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10.25George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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7.01Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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13.37Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.85Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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11.76University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
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7.73St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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10.61Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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8.61Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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13.74Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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15.96Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Long | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 5.3% |
| Augie Dale | 11.2% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Christopher Williford | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Jack Parkin | 10.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 18.3% | 13.4% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| John Whitehead | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 4.6% |
| Liam McCarthy | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Brad Seferian | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 2.4% |
| Jackson McCoy | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Caleb Niles | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 19.5% | 16.3% |
| William Sunkler | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 15.5% | 53.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.