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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.53+6.25vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.48+5.37vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.78+10.82vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+3.52vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University1.89+8.07vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.56+0.93vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.57vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-0.03vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.14-0.50vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.72+0.46vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.59-4.05vs Predicted
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12Cornell University3.14-3.13vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.75-6.91vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-5.97vs Predicted
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15Hampton University2.26-3.08vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida2.27-3.99vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.80-0.84vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.60-7.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.25Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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7.37Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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13.82Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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7.52Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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13.07Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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6.93Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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7.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.97St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.5Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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10.46George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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6.95Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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8.87Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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6.09College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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8.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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11.92Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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12.01University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
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16.16Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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10.51Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Williford | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Caleb Niles | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 15.0% | 20.7% | 14.3% |
| Trevor Long | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Charney | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 18.2% | 12.3% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Jackson McCoy | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 2.0% |
| Jack Parkin | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Augie Dale | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 4.6% |
| John Whitehead | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 5.5% |
| William Sunkler | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 13.9% | 56.2% |
| Brad Seferian | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.