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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.82+7.91vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+3.94vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.72+2.54vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.17+3.35vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.00+2.92vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+2.31vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.77+2.00vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.32+2.58vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.750.00vs Predicted
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10Hampton University1.08+5.01vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.23-3.72vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11-4.05vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.63+0.08vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.09-6.57vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.96-2.96vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.68-2.85vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.26-2.52vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.95-9.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.91Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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5.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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5.54Brown University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.35Stanford University3.170.1%1st Place
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7.92Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.000.1%1st Place
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8.31St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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9.0Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.58George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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9.0Bowdoin College2.750.0%1st Place
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15.01Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.28College of Charleston3.230.1%1st Place
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7.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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13.08Northeastern University1.630.0%1st Place
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7.43Dartmouth College3.090.1%1st Place
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12.04Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
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13.15University of South Florida1.680.0%1st Place
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14.48Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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8.02Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Bitney | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Charles Miller | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ragna Agerup | 11.8% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Ivan Shestopalov | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Lewis Cooper | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Gabby Rizika | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 2.7% |
| Matt Safford | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 18.3% | 34.5% |
| Jack Brown | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Santiago Hirschmann | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 13.7% |
| Timothy Greenhouse | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Vir Menon | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 5.5% |
| Brett Putnam | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 14.6% | 13.0% |
| Paul Hart | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 19.3% | 25.8% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.