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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.81+5.33vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.81+8.40vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University3.43+4.72vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+4.48vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.12+3.80vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.23+2.46vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College2.72+3.48vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.70+2.51vs Predicted
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9Yale University4.24-4.39vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.12-0.93vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.25-2.58vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.09-2.70vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.15-4.47vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-1.45vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.97-5.59vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.14-3.11vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.28-1.52vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University2.89-8.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.33Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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10.4Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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7.72Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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8.8University of Pennsylvania3.120.0%1st Place
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8.46Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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10.48Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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10.51University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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4.61Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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9.07Harvard University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.42U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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9.3University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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8.53Boston College3.150.1%1st Place
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12.55Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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9.41Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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12.89SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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15.48University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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9.54Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Segerblom | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Carrson Pearce | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Conner Harding | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 3.9% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 3.9% |
| Nicholas Baird | 16.7% | 15.9% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eli Burnes | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.3% |
| Connor Bayless | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Dakota Northrup | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Sophia Reineke | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Alexander Bowen | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 12.3% |
| Robby Gearon | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| John Lawless | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 16.0% | 13.9% |
| Connor Goulet | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 48.4% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.