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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.81+5.24vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.20+6.72vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.76+7.53vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.12+4.65vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University3.43+2.41vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.23+2.31vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+1.55vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.25+0.12vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.15-0.41vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.81+0.31vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11+1.94vs Predicted
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12Yale University4.24-7.08vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College2.72-2.73vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.28+1.10vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.89-5.33vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.97-6.59vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont2.70-6.29vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College2.14-5.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.24Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.72Harvard University3.200.0%1st Place
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10.53University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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8.65University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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7.41Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.31Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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8.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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8.12U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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8.59Boston College3.150.1%1st Place
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10.31Connecticut College2.810.1%1st Place
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12.94Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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4.92Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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10.27Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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15.1University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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9.67Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.41Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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10.71University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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12.54SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Segerblom | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Brendan Read | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Conner Harding | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Carrson Pearce | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Connor Bayless | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Sophia Reineke | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Carter Pemberton | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 3.3% |
| Alexander Bowen | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 15.7% | 17.3% |
| Nicholas Baird | 16.9% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% |
| Connor Goulet | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 13.9% | 44.9% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| Robby Gearon | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 4.0% |
| John Lawless | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 14.6% | 12.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.