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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.20+7.51vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+2.64vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College2.72+7.51vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.23+3.99vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University3.43+2.31vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.15+2.49vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.97+2.16vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+0.28vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.89+0.48vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.81-3.91vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania3.12-2.27vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.81-1.87vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.25-5.11vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-1.77vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.76-5.02vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.14-3.42vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.74-3.03vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan1.28-2.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.51Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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4.64Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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10.51Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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7.99Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.31Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.49Boston College3.150.1%1st Place
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9.16Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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8.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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9.48Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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6.09Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.73University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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10.13Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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7.89U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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12.23Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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9.98University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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12.58SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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13.97University of Vermont1.740.0%1st Place
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15.04University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Baird | 14.0% | 16.3% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| Conner Harding | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 9.0% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Sophia Reineke | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Carrson Pearce | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Carter Pemberton | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.4% |
| Connor Bayless | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Bowen | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 10.8% |
| Brendan Read | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| John Lawless | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 11.9% |
| Peter Schneider | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 20.4% | 22.1% |
| Connor Goulet | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 16.6% | 39.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.