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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.23+7.43vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+2.72vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.81+3.12vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University3.43+3.34vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College2.72+5.16vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.12+2.66vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.15+1.56vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island3.09+0.70vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.25-0.91vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-1.17vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.97-1.56vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.74+2.16vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-0.50vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.89-4.69vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.20-6.67vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.28-0.76vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.14-4.32vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College2.81-8.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.43Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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4.72Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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6.12Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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7.34Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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10.16Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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8.66University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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8.56Boston College3.150.1%1st Place
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8.7University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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8.09U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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8.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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9.44Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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14.16University of Vermont1.740.0%1st Place
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12.5Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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9.31Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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8.33Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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15.24University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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12.68SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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9.73Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner Harding | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Baird | 13.6% | 15.4% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 11.1% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.2% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Sophia Reineke | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Dakota Northrup | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Connor Bayless | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Carrson Pearce | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Robby Gearon | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Peter Schneider | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 19.2% | 24.2% |
| Alexander Bowen | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 9.8% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Connor Goulet | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 17.4% | 40.4% |
| John Lawless | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 15.9% | 10.3% |
| Carter Pemberton | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.