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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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13.69+4.57vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.93+2.77vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+3.44vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.84+4.35vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+6.11vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.53+3.71vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.23+3.77vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.09-0.58vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.20-1.97vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.06-2.12vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.82-2.34vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.40+2.00vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College1.63-0.20vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.93-6.15vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.82-6.54vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.17-4.87vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.68-1.38vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.44-4.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.573.690.1%1st Place
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4.77Yale University3.930.1%1st Place
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6.44Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.35Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
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11.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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9.71Jacksonville University2.530.0%1st Place
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10.77University of Vermont2.230.0%1st Place
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7.42Roger Williams University3.090.1%1st Place
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7.03Boston College3.200.1%1st Place
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7.88Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.66Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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14.0Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.400.0%1st Place
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12.8Eckerd College1.630.0%1st Place
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7.85University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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8.46Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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11.13University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
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15.62University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
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13.41SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 13.5% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Harvey | 13.5% | 15.1% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Burnes | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| Jack Gower | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Cameron Nash | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Isabella Loosbrock | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sam Morrell | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Christos Karplus | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 20.7% | 17.8% |
| Daniel Vail | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 10.5% |
| Luke Ingalls | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Porter Killian | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| Will Neubauer | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 17.5% | 44.7% |
| Aidan Molesky | 2.0% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 15.8% | 13.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.