Race 1B

atlantic-coast-tournament

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Amy Hawkins 14.6% 13.7% 13.7% 10.2% 10.3% 8.5% 6.6% 6.9% 4.5% 3.2% 3.2% 2.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6%
Ben Greenfield 17.8% 16.8% 10.7% 12.9% 10.8% 7.3% 7.3% 5.5% 4.4% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Nicolas Russo-Larsson 9.8% 9.9% 11.0% 8.6% 8.6% 9.7% 8.4% 7.4% 8.3% 5.6% 5.0% 3.1% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9%
D.J. Hatch 6.7% 8.1% 7.6% 7.4% 9.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.0% 7.0% 9.2% 6.3% 4.4% 5.7% 4.2% 2.0%
Christopher Stessing 5.8% 6.3% 6.9% 4.9% 5.9% 6.6% 7.0% 7.5% 7.5% 7.6% 9.0% 8.6% 5.8% 6.3% 4.3%
Michael Russom 3.8% 4.1% 5.1% 4.5% 4.8% 5.1% 6.6% 5.6% 7.3% 7.3% 8.9% 9.3% 9.9% 9.8% 7.9%
Ryan White 5.2% 4.5% 4.2% 4.3% 4.9% 6.1% 5.9% 7.2% 6.2% 8.5% 7.3% 9.5% 8.8% 9.7% 7.7%
John Renehan 6.9% 6.3% 8.0% 7.9% 5.8% 7.3% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 6.8% 7.6% 6.7% 5.3% 4.8% 2.4%
Graham Gardner 3.9% 4.3% 5.3% 4.9% 6.9% 7.5% 7.6% 5.8% 8.8% 7.1% 7.7% 8.6% 8.3% 8.8% 4.5%
Philip Alley 6.5% 6.8% 7.9% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 7.3% 8.0% 8.1% 7.0% 6.6% 5.3% 5.5% 4.0% 1.8%
Phoebe Sprague 3.5% 3.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 5.6% 6.1% 6.5% 7.7% 8.1% 7.6% 10.0% 10.5% 9.8%
Mildred Conroy 2.7% 1.6% 1.8% 3.8% 3.3% 3.9% 5.3% 5.9% 4.8% 6.1% 7.8% 8.6% 10.6% 13.8% 20.0%
Rian Bareuther 5.4% 5.1% 4.2% 6.5% 5.7% 5.8% 6.4% 7.5% 6.1% 8.0% 8.2% 10.0% 8.6% 6.5% 6.0%
Eric Decesar 5.8% 6.1% 5.5% 8.2% 7.2% 7.4% 6.8% 7.7% 7.7% 8.7% 6.3% 7.8% 7.2% 4.7% 2.9%
John Croll 1.6% 3.0% 2.7% 2.3% 2.9% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 5.1% 5.2% 6.0% 7.1% 10.0% 14.4% 29.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.