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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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13.69+4.58vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+4.52vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.84+5.62vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.09+3.36vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.93-0.40vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.06+1.56vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.93+1.02vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+3.13vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University2.53+0.56vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.82-1.25vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.82-2.32vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.17-0.66vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.20-6.04vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.23-3.51vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College1.63-2.06vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.40-2.23vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.68-1.30vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.44-4.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.583.690.1%1st Place
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6.52Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.62Harvard University2.840.0%1st Place
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7.36Roger Williams University3.090.1%1st Place
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4.6Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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7.56Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.02University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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11.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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9.56Jacksonville University2.530.0%1st Place
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8.75Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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8.68Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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11.34University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
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6.96Boston College3.200.1%1st Place
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10.49University of Vermont2.230.0%1st Place
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12.94Eckerd College1.630.0%1st Place
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13.77Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.400.0%1st Place
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15.7University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
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13.43SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 11.5% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Henry Burnes | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Shawn Harvey | 18.6% | 15.2% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Morrell | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Luke Ingalls | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
| Jack Gower | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Porter Killian | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 4.2% |
| Isabella Loosbrock | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Nash | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Daniel Vail | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 14.6% | 10.2% |
| Christos Karplus | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 17.7% | 16.5% |
| Will Neubauer | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 17.1% | 46.1% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 14.8% | 16.9% | 13.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.