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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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13.69+4.49vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.93+6.24vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.82+5.58vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+7.01vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.82+3.39vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.09+1.44vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.93-2.39vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University2.53+1.43vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.20-2.04vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.40+3.82vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.84-2.51vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.39-5.40vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.06-5.61vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.44-0.76vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.23-4.30vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.68-0.41vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania1.86-4.72vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College1.63-5.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.493.690.1%1st Place
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8.24University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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8.58Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
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11.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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8.39Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.44Roger Williams University3.090.1%1st Place
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4.61Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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9.43Jacksonville University2.530.0%1st Place
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6.96Boston College3.200.1%1st Place
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13.82Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.400.0%1st Place
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8.49Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.6Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.39Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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13.24SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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10.7University of Vermont2.230.0%1st Place
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15.59University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
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12.28University of Pennsylvania1.860.0%1st Place
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12.74Eckerd College1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 12.4% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Ingalls | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Shawn Harvey | 17.8% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Gower | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Isabella Loosbrock | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christos Karplus | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 18.5% | 16.3% |
| Henry Burnes | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| William Logue | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sam Morrell | 7.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 16.2% | 12.8% |
| Cameron Nash | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 2.3% |
| Will Neubauer | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 15.4% | 45.3% |
| Tanner Probst | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 8.0% |
| Daniel Vail | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 8.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.