Race 1A

morton-schapiro-phd

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Noah Janssen 16.7% 15.6% 15.9% 15.0% 14.3% 10.3% 6.4% 3.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Christian Cyrul 21.2% 22.3% 17.4% 14.9% 10.6% 6.7% 4.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Bailey 27.8% 20.9% 16.7% 13.9% 10.8% 5.6% 2.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Schmidt 11.9% 14.3% 15.1% 15.6% 14.4% 10.6% 8.4% 6.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Christian Green 2.0% 2.5% 2.2% 3.8% 4.6% 5.1% 7.5% 10.5% 9.6% 12.7% 16.1% 13.8% 9.6%
Martin Moore 0.8% 1.5% 1.7% 3.2% 3.2% 4.0% 4.8% 7.0% 9.9% 11.8% 15.8% 18.6% 17.7%
Erin Abbott 6.1% 4.2% 8.7% 6.0% 9.5% 10.7% 14.6% 12.0% 11.0% 7.1% 5.9% 3.2% 1.0%
Joseph Morris 2.0% 3.3% 3.2% 4.1% 5.3% 8.1% 7.5% 10.9% 12.7% 16.1% 11.8% 9.4% 5.6%
Karl Wagerson 2.6% 2.6% 3.5% 5.0% 5.3% 6.9% 9.3% 10.7% 12.9% 13.9% 11.4% 11.0% 4.9%
Francis Lucchetti 1.5% 1.8% 2.9% 2.5% 2.8% 5.1% 6.6% 8.4% 10.0% 12.1% 16.9% 15.7% 13.7%
Samuel Ephraim 2.9% 3.7% 5.0% 7.4% 6.9% 9.8% 13.7% 13.0% 10.5% 11.1% 8.1% 5.6% 2.3%
Raymond Cracchiolo 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 1.3% 1.6% 2.6% 2.9% 3.6% 6.8% 6.1% 9.7% 18.9% 44.7%
Solomon Dworsky 4.1% 6.6% 7.0% 7.3% 10.7% 14.5% 12.2% 11.5% 11.6% 7.2% 3.4% 3.5% 0.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.