Race 2A

morton-schapiro-phd

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Noah Janssen 17.2% 14.4% 15.8% 16.5% 12.0% 11.6% 6.4% 3.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Christian Cyrul 20.6% 23.8% 17.8% 13.7% 11.5% 6.0% 3.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Jonathan Bailey 28.1% 21.2% 15.9% 14.6% 10.1% 5.8% 2.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Schmidt 11.9% 14.2% 16.1% 15.5% 13.0% 12.2% 8.6% 3.8% 3.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2%
Karl Wagerson 3.0% 2.7% 4.2% 5.2% 4.9% 6.9% 11.1% 11.6% 11.4% 13.6% 11.4% 9.1% 4.9%
Erin Abbott 5.2% 4.9% 6.1% 7.4% 11.0% 11.6% 13.2% 11.0% 11.6% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0%
Christian Green 2.1% 2.3% 2.7% 3.3% 4.6% 5.4% 7.4% 9.0% 10.5% 13.6% 14.2% 14.8% 10.1%
Joseph Morris 2.4% 3.0% 3.4% 4.0% 4.8% 7.5% 9.8% 12.7% 11.3% 13.7% 11.7% 10.7% 5.0%
Martin Moore 1.1% 1.3% 2.2% 2.6% 3.4% 3.9% 4.2% 6.9% 9.1% 10.6% 15.6% 19.2% 19.9%
Francis Lucchetti 1.5% 1.9% 2.5% 3.1% 2.5% 5.3% 6.5% 9.1% 10.5% 12.0% 14.2% 17.2% 13.7%
Raymond Cracchiolo 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 2.0% 4.0% 4.3% 6.7% 7.2% 11.5% 18.5% 40.8%
Samuel Ephraim 2.1% 3.4% 4.7% 6.2% 8.6% 8.0% 10.5% 13.0% 12.0% 11.8% 10.7% 5.2% 3.8%
Solomon Dworsky 4.1% 6.3% 7.7% 7.0% 11.7% 13.8% 12.1% 12.2% 11.1% 7.3% 4.0% 2.1% 0.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.