Race 3A

morton-schapiro-phd

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

84.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jonathan Bailey 27.0% 24.7% 16.9% 14.4% 9.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Christian Cyrul 23.5% 21.6% 18.7% 16.1% 8.1% 7.2% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Karl Wagerson 2.5% 1.9% 3.4% 4.0% 8.2% 9.8% 12.5% 14.5% 13.5% 12.6% 9.7% 5.3% 2.1%
Patrick Schmidt 12.9% 14.6% 17.4% 15.7% 15.7% 11.5% 6.8% 2.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Noah Janssen 17.5% 17.6% 16.3% 16.4% 14.1% 8.3% 6.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Solomon Dworsky 6.3% 5.7% 8.6% 10.6% 12.9% 14.4% 13.4% 12.7% 7.3% 4.2% 2.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Christian Green 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 3.7% 5.8% 6.2% 9.4% 11.4% 12.5% 14.9% 12.4% 12.3% 4.0%
Joseph Morris 2.9% 2.8% 4.3% 4.0% 6.4% 9.2% 12.1% 13.4% 14.9% 11.5% 10.3% 6.4% 1.8%
Martin Moore 1.1% 1.3% 2.6% 3.6% 3.5% 5.4% 5.5% 8.1% 11.9% 13.9% 17.3% 16.3% 9.5%
Francis Lucchetti 1.1% 1.9% 3.3% 2.6% 4.5% 6.8% 7.6% 11.3% 11.8% 12.8% 16.2% 12.8% 7.3%
Logan Noel 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 1.2% 1.5% 3.4% 3.4% 4.6% 7.3% 11.5% 18.9% 46.5%
Raymond Cracchiolo 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 1.5% 2.2% 3.4% 4.5% 4.2% 7.1% 10.1% 13.5% 23.8% 27.7%
Samuel Ephraim 2.2% 4.0% 4.7% 7.0% 7.5% 12.3% 13.5% 14.5% 12.7% 11.7% 5.9% 3.0% 1.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.