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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+3.56vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.25+2.63vs Predicted
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3Cornell University3.27+1.45vs Predicted
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4Washington College3.07+0.72vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University2.54+0.75vs Predicted
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6Boston University4.07-3.22vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.65-1.25vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81-2.63vs Predicted
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9Columbia University1.99-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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4.63Bowdoin College3.250.1%1st Place
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4.45Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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4.72Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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5.75Salve Regina University2.540.1%1st Place
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2.78Boston University4.070.3%1st Place
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5.75Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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5.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.1%1st Place
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6.99Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Renehan | 12.0% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 4.5% |
| D.J. Hatch | 9.3% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 4.0% |
| Philip Alley | 12.2% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 11.1% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 5.8% |
| Robert Lippincott | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 15.1% | 17.3% |
| Ben Greenfield | 29.8% | 24.2% | 15.8% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Phoebe Sprague | 7.3% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 13.5% |
| Bradley Milliken | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 11.4% |
| John Croll | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 17.2% | 39.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.