Race 4A

morton-schapiro-phd

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Noah Janssen 17.8% 15.0% 17.5% 15.6% 15.0% 9.3% 5.3% 2.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Bailey 27.0% 25.5% 16.9% 14.8% 8.5% 4.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Schmidt 13.2% 15.0% 16.5% 15.2% 15.8% 11.4% 7.1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Christian Cyrul 23.3% 20.2% 19.4% 15.1% 11.4% 6.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Karl Wagerson 3.0% 3.4% 3.1% 6.2% 6.7% 10.9% 11.8% 12.4% 13.1% 12.7% 9.4% 5.5% 1.8%
Joseph Morris 2.0% 3.0% 4.1% 4.7% 7.2% 9.1% 11.4% 13.4% 14.3% 12.1% 10.7% 6.3% 1.7%
Solomon Dworsky 6.7% 6.6% 9.0% 9.7% 11.9% 15.0% 13.6% 11.2% 8.3% 5.3% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2%
Logan Noel 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 1.9% 3.0% 3.3% 4.6% 5.0% 9.9% 19.8% 48.9%
Francis Lucchetti 1.3% 1.9% 2.1% 3.8% 4.2% 5.1% 8.4% 10.0% 10.8% 15.5% 16.8% 13.2% 6.9%
Christian Green 1.6% 2.4% 2.9% 3.9% 4.4% 7.4% 10.6% 11.0% 15.0% 12.9% 11.8% 10.8% 5.3%
Raymond Cracchiolo 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.8% 4.5% 6.5% 7.6% 10.1% 16.7% 23.1% 22.8%
Samuel Ephraim 2.5% 3.8% 5.3% 6.2% 8.7% 12.4% 12.4% 12.7% 12.5% 11.5% 6.3% 3.9% 1.8%
Martin Moore 0.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 3.3% 3.7% 7.6% 11.1% 10.9% 13.8% 16.5% 16.4% 10.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.