Race 5A

morton-schapiro-phd

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Christian Cyrul 22.8% 19.7% 19.5% 16.1% 10.3% 6.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Schmidt 13.2% 13.5% 16.9% 17.8% 12.8% 11.5% 6.5% 4.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Noah Janssen 16.3% 17.4% 16.8% 15.0% 15.8% 9.3% 4.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Bailey 26.9% 24.9% 18.6% 12.7% 8.1% 5.0% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Karl Wagerson 3.5% 2.5% 3.7% 4.7% 6.7% 10.4% 11.9% 11.8% 11.6% 11.8% 10.7% 7.9% 2.8%
Solomon Dworsky 5.4% 6.2% 8.3% 10.9% 13.5% 13.9% 11.8% 10.1% 10.3% 4.7% 3.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Joseph Morris 2.9% 3.5% 3.0% 4.2% 7.7% 8.2% 11.5% 11.5% 13.0% 11.4% 11.6% 7.6% 3.9%
Francis Lucchetti 1.2% 2.5% 2.4% 3.2% 3.4% 6.5% 7.0% 9.8% 11.4% 14.9% 12.5% 14.5% 10.7%
Christian Green 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.6% 9.7% 10.1% 11.8% 14.7% 11.1% 12.3% 9.8%
Samuel Ephraim 3.8% 4.7% 3.8% 6.4% 8.5% 10.6% 14.4% 13.5% 11.3% 8.5% 7.3% 4.3% 2.9%
Raymond Cracchiolo 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 2.4% 3.2% 4.1% 5.8% 6.5% 9.7% 11.9% 18.4% 35.1%
Juni Terry 0.7% 1.1% 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 5.1% 6.6% 8.4% 10.3% 10.5% 15.3% 17.4% 18.0%
Martin Moore 1.0% 1.3% 2.1% 1.9% 3.4% 4.1% 6.1% 9.9% 9.4% 12.3% 15.5% 16.6% 16.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.