Race 7A

morton-schapiro-phd

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Christian Cyrul 22.9% 21.8% 18.3% 13.9% 12.2% 5.8% 3.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Bailey 27.5% 22.9% 18.2% 13.4% 9.3% 5.4% 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Noah Janssen 15.5% 18.1% 17.2% 16.0% 12.3% 9.7% 5.9% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Karl Wagerson 2.3% 2.3% 4.3% 5.4% 6.0% 9.9% 12.2% 12.4% 11.3% 10.9% 11.5% 7.7% 3.8%
Patrick Schmidt 14.3% 15.2% 14.9% 15.0% 13.7% 12.2% 8.2% 3.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Francis Lucchetti 1.5% 1.4% 3.0% 3.2% 4.3% 6.4% 7.3% 9.9% 10.0% 15.0% 14.3% 12.8% 10.9%
Christian Green 2.2% 2.8% 2.5% 3.5% 5.5% 7.0% 7.6% 12.3% 11.1% 12.5% 13.6% 13.0% 6.4%
Joseph Morris 2.0% 3.2% 4.4% 3.7% 6.4% 9.0% 9.7% 12.1% 15.1% 13.0% 10.5% 7.7% 3.2%
Juni Terry 1.2% 1.1% 2.7% 2.4% 4.5% 3.0% 4.8% 8.0% 10.5% 12.7% 14.3% 17.6% 17.2%
Solomon Dworsky 6.2% 6.3% 6.5% 9.6% 13.7% 13.5% 12.9% 10.3% 9.4% 6.0% 3.6% 1.2% 0.8%
Samuel Ephraim 2.8% 3.5% 5.5% 9.6% 7.8% 10.0% 14.9% 13.4% 12.7% 7.5% 7.1% 3.6% 1.6%
Martin Moore 0.9% 0.9% 2.0% 2.9% 2.4% 6.0% 8.1% 6.5% 9.3% 12.5% 13.3% 17.8% 17.4%
Raymond Cracchiolo 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 1.4% 1.9% 2.1% 3.6% 5.3% 6.4% 9.0% 11.5% 18.5% 38.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.