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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands2.77+6.36vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego2.19+7.49vs Predicted
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3Stanford University4.05+0.53vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles2.63+4.15vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine2.83+2.29vs Predicted
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6University of Oregon2.51+2.52vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-1.12vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay2.30+1.11vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii2.92-2.10vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California3.16-3.87vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz1.99-0.72vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75-0.87vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis1.68-1.68vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University2.38-5.21vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley1.57-3.17vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University2.02-5.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.36California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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9.49University of California at San Diego2.190.0%1st Place
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3.53Stanford University4.050.2%1st Place
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8.15University of California at Los Angeles2.630.0%1st Place
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7.29University of California at Irvine2.830.1%1st Place
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8.52University of Oregon2.510.0%1st Place
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5.88University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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9.11California State University Monterey Bay2.300.0%1st Place
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6.9University of Hawaii2.920.1%1st Place
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6.13University of Southern California3.160.1%1st Place
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10.28University of California at Santa Cruz1.990.0%1st Place
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11.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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11.32University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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8.79Northwestern University2.380.0%1st Place
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11.83University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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10.29Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Dair | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Eric Alamillo | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% |
| Kevin Laube | 23.7% | 18.6% | 16.1% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Jack Porter | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Philip Gordon | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 11.5% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Schoch | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% |
| Zachary Hester | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| Stephen Lue | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Cowley | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.9% |
| Thomas Maher | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 18.6% |
| Ryan Lee | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 18.4% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% |
| Aubrey Toole | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 16.5% | 20.9% |
| Bryan Rust | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.