Race 6B

morton-schapiro-phd

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

92.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kevin Gallagher 14.8% 28.2% 23.9% 19.0% 8.8% 3.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colleen Wiechart 6.2% 9.3% 14.1% 23.8% 19.8% 14.7% 7.6% 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Christian Spencer 60.3% 26.6% 9.6% 2.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Thomas Kelly 9.6% 19.0% 24.9% 20.2% 14.4% 7.7% 2.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nick Nowicki 2.0% 2.3% 3.7% 5.2% 10.1% 15.9% 16.5% 18.9% 11.9% 8.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.0%
Jack Barnes 3.8% 7.4% 12.8% 16.6% 20.5% 17.9% 11.5% 6.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pearce Pomerleau 0.7% 1.7% 2.3% 2.6% 4.7% 8.3% 13.1% 14.2% 18.3% 16.4% 12.2% 4.8% 0.7%
Colin Higgins 1.2% 3.2% 4.1% 4.6% 9.9% 15.1% 21.7% 17.2% 13.1% 6.8% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Matthew Granstrom 0.6% 1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 5.8% 7.2% 10.8% 15.7% 19.1% 19.1% 11.2% 4.4% 0.6%
Kati Cheung 0.4% 0.5% 1.4% 2.0% 3.7% 5.1% 8.5% 10.1% 18.5% 19.1% 17.2% 9.7% 3.8%
Jack Webb 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 1.9% 3.2% 5.5% 7.3% 11.7% 22.9% 26.6% 19.2%
Nicholas Daniel 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 1.2% 1.8% 2.9% 3.4% 7.4% 11.7% 25.2% 45.2%
Jonathan Watzka 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% 4.1% 4.9% 10.0% 18.1% 27.7% 30.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.