Race 1A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Louisa Nordstrom 17.3% 16.9% 13.9% 12.6% 11.9% 8.3% 7.9% 5.1% 2.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Marina Barzaghi 5.4% 5.0% 6.9% 7.3% 7.5% 8.4% 9.2% 10.7% 10.0% 11.4% 8.0% 6.9% 3.3%
Alie Toppa 16.7% 19.4% 13.4% 11.5% 11.8% 8.9% 7.6% 5.5% 2.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Dana Haig 8.6% 7.9% 9.1% 11.7% 10.9% 10.4% 9.4% 9.1% 7.9% 6.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.8%
Delaney Bamford 7.3% 6.0% 9.7% 8.7% 8.0% 8.9% 9.2% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 6.8% 4.0% 2.0%
Taylor Gavula 9.3% 10.9% 8.5% 10.4% 9.6% 11.9% 7.8% 9.1% 8.6% 5.2% 5.3% 2.9% 0.5%
Emma Marston 5.3% 4.1% 6.2% 5.4% 6.7% 6.8% 7.1% 10.6% 9.8% 11.3% 11.0% 9.5% 6.2%
Ainsley Parramore 1.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.6% 3.9% 6.2% 8.5% 11.2% 17.1% 37.4%
Grace Mooradian 5.4% 5.1% 5.3% 7.3% 7.0% 7.7% 9.3% 9.7% 11.5% 9.4% 9.7% 8.4% 4.2%
Hannah Steadman 16.0% 13.6% 15.3% 11.9% 10.4% 8.9% 8.7% 5.8% 3.4% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Darden Purrington 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.9% 5.4% 4.9% 6.0% 7.0% 9.7% 10.5% 12.9% 17.7% 14.5%
AnaLucia Clarkson 2.0% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 3.2% 5.0% 7.2% 5.5% 7.4% 9.8% 13.3% 16.7% 22.1%
Abbie Carlson 3.0% 3.9% 4.5% 4.8% 4.7% 7.0% 8.0% 8.2% 10.4% 9.9% 13.4% 13.5% 8.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.