Race 2A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Alie Toppa 18.2% 17.1% 15.8% 11.8% 10.6% 9.5% 6.5% 4.4% 3.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Ainsley Parramore 1.7% 1.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 2.5% 3.8% 4.7% 5.5% 6.6% 10.7% 16.9% 39.2%
Louisa Nordstrom 16.1% 16.7% 14.9% 13.3% 10.2% 10.8% 7.0% 4.5% 3.0% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2%
AnaLucia Clarkson 2.1% 1.9% 2.4% 3.4% 4.9% 3.6% 5.8% 7.3% 9.4% 9.9% 13.3% 17.8% 18.2%
Delaney Bamford 7.4% 6.7% 8.4% 9.5% 7.6% 8.6% 9.5% 10.9% 9.3% 7.4% 8.5% 4.1% 2.1%
Abbie Carlson 3.8% 5.0% 4.4% 3.6% 5.0% 7.3% 7.9% 10.3% 9.5% 12.1% 12.4% 10.4% 8.3%
Hannah Steadman 16.9% 13.5% 12.9% 14.2% 10.3% 8.9% 7.5% 6.5% 4.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1%
Emma Marston 4.0% 4.7% 4.9% 6.2% 7.0% 7.6% 7.8% 8.3% 11.0% 11.9% 11.1% 10.7% 4.8%
Marina Barzaghi 6.1% 5.1% 6.1% 6.4% 7.8% 7.2% 9.7% 9.7% 11.3% 10.1% 9.3% 7.3% 3.9%
Taylor Gavula 9.1% 9.5% 9.7% 10.1% 10.5% 9.9% 9.1% 8.4% 8.0% 6.9% 5.0% 3.0% 0.8%
Dana Haig 8.4% 11.3% 9.4% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9% 10.0% 8.4% 7.9% 5.8% 3.8% 2.8% 0.3%
Darden Purrington 2.0% 2.1% 3.7% 2.2% 4.3% 5.8% 6.1% 5.9% 7.5% 10.6% 13.2% 18.2% 18.4%
Grace Mooradian 4.2% 5.1% 5.5% 6.5% 8.4% 7.4% 9.3% 10.7% 9.6% 11.9% 10.0% 7.7% 3.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.