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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands2.77+6.22vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego2.19+7.38vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+2.66vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.92+2.96vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine2.83+2.14vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles2.63+1.96vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California2.57+1.13vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay2.30+0.92vs Predicted
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9University of Oregon2.51-0.81vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz1.99+0.29vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley1.57+0.58vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75-1.00vs Predicted
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13Stanford University4.05-9.60vs Predicted
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14Western Washington University2.02-4.07vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis1.68-3.60vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University2.38-9.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.22California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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9.38University of California at San Diego2.190.0%1st Place
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5.66University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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6.96University of Hawaii2.920.1%1st Place
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7.14University of California at Irvine2.830.1%1st Place
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7.96University of California at Los Angeles2.630.1%1st Place
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8.13University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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8.92California State University Monterey Bay2.300.0%1st Place
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8.19University of Oregon2.510.1%1st Place
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10.29University of California at Santa Cruz1.990.0%1st Place
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11.58University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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11.0Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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3.4Stanford University4.050.3%1st Place
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9.93Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
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11.4University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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8.85Northwestern University2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Dair | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Eric Alamillo | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Zachary Hester | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Jack Porter | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 5.9% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% |
| Bradley Schoch | 3.3% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% |
| Philip Gordon | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% |
| Andrew Cowley | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 8.4% |
| Aubrey Toole | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 22.3% |
| Thomas Maher | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 18.4% |
| Kevin Laube | 25.9% | 20.9% | 14.9% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Rust | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 7.7% |
| Ryan Lee | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 17.2% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.