Race 4A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Marston 3.8% 4.6% 3.8% 6.7% 6.7% 7.3% 6.7% 8.8% 11.4% 13.5% 10.7% 10.4% 5.6%
Delaney Bamford 6.2% 7.0% 6.5% 8.8% 8.9% 11.0% 8.9% 10.2% 9.5% 8.5% 8.1% 4.6% 1.8%
Grace Mooradian 3.7% 4.9% 6.8% 7.6% 7.6% 7.1% 9.6% 10.7% 10.5% 10.3% 10.0% 7.4% 3.8%
Marina Barzaghi 5.7% 5.0% 5.9% 6.9% 8.5% 9.5% 8.6% 10.8% 10.3% 9.3% 9.2% 7.4% 2.9%
Louisa Nordstrom 19.0% 16.6% 14.2% 13.4% 9.4% 9.6% 7.7% 4.0% 3.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Abbie Carlson 3.4% 4.4% 5.4% 4.2% 7.1% 6.3% 7.3% 7.8% 10.6% 11.8% 11.8% 11.6% 8.3%
Alie Toppa 19.1% 16.4% 15.9% 12.3% 9.7% 9.5% 6.1% 5.5% 3.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Hannah Steadman 15.6% 14.3% 13.3% 13.6% 11.7% 8.6% 10.1% 5.1% 3.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Darden Purrington 2.2% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 6.0% 5.9% 7.9% 10.4% 14.1% 19.0% 16.9%
AnaLucia Clarkson 2.5% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% 4.8% 8.0% 8.5% 9.8% 14.3% 15.1% 20.2%
Taylor Gavula 8.3% 10.8% 10.8% 9.3% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 9.4% 7.1% 6.5% 4.0% 1.4% 1.2%
Dana Haig 9.3% 7.8% 9.0% 8.7% 11.1% 10.1% 10.2% 9.2% 9.0% 6.7% 4.6% 3.3% 1.0%
Ainsley Parramore 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 3.2% 3.6% 4.6% 5.1% 7.9% 10.7% 18.6% 38.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.