Race 5A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Dana Haig 8.6% 8.3% 11.9% 9.1% 9.7% 9.7% 10.8% 9.8% 8.3% 6.6% 4.3% 2.2% 0.7%
Hannah Steadman 14.3% 13.7% 14.1% 13.4% 11.4% 9.8% 8.4% 5.7% 4.7% 2.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Alie Toppa 19.0% 16.3% 12.5% 14.8% 10.4% 10.2% 6.8% 4.8% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Grace Mooradian 4.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.2% 8.9% 7.7% 10.2% 7.8% 10.2% 11.8% 9.6% 8.3% 2.9%
Taylor Gavula 8.9% 10.6% 9.6% 10.0% 10.0% 9.6% 8.9% 10.0% 9.1% 6.0% 4.3% 2.2% 0.8%
Louisa Nordstrom 18.3% 16.8% 14.2% 13.6% 9.7% 8.3% 6.7% 5.8% 3.5% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Delaney Bamford 7.9% 6.5% 8.1% 8.6% 7.9% 8.1% 9.9% 9.9% 10.8% 9.6% 6.2% 4.9% 1.6%
Ainsley Parramore 1.4% 1.6% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 3.7% 2.4% 3.9% 6.6% 7.7% 11.3% 18.0% 36.6%
Darden Purrington 3.1% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% 4.1% 5.0% 4.3% 6.1% 8.9% 11.1% 12.4% 18.1% 18.5%
Emma Marston 4.6% 5.2% 4.1% 5.5% 5.9% 8.1% 8.0% 10.0% 9.1% 11.7% 11.6% 9.1% 7.1%
Marina Barzaghi 5.1% 5.8% 7.6% 7.0% 9.8% 8.0% 10.6% 10.2% 9.5% 8.8% 8.7% 6.4% 2.5%
AnaLucia Clarkson 1.5% 3.2% 2.0% 2.4% 5.5% 4.4% 5.4% 7.1% 6.3% 9.5% 15.3% 16.1% 21.3%
Abbie Carlson 3.2% 3.6% 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 7.4% 7.6% 8.9% 9.9% 11.5% 13.6% 13.6% 7.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.