Race 1B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sophie Hibben 16.9% 16.9% 13.4% 13.6% 13.5% 7.0% 7.5% 5.1% 3.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Christine Klingler 24.7% 20.7% 17.4% 12.2% 9.0% 6.2% 5.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Liza Toppa 6.0% 7.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.0% 10.4% 10.0% 10.2% 8.9% 7.2% 5.9% 3.1% 1.2%
Emma Kaneti 12.1% 12.3% 13.0% 12.9% 10.2% 10.7% 8.9% 7.3% 6.2% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Meredith Julian 3.6% 3.4% 3.9% 4.9% 6.4% 6.1% 5.6% 8.7% 8.3% 12.8% 11.9% 15.6% 8.8%
Kathryn Bornarth 6.9% 5.5% 6.7% 7.7% 9.1% 8.6% 10.8% 10.3% 9.3% 8.1% 8.4% 6.5% 2.1%
Rebecca Read 8.4% 7.5% 8.9% 8.6% 8.6% 10.6% 9.5% 9.3% 9.1% 7.6% 6.7% 4.0% 1.2%
Allison Cahn 4.7% 6.5% 4.8% 6.5% 7.5% 9.8% 7.8% 9.8% 11.8% 10.6% 9.6% 7.4% 3.2%
Elizabeth Holiman 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% 4.1% 5.6% 4.9% 5.5% 8.9% 9.9% 11.0% 12.7% 16.4% 11.4%
Charlotte Lenz 4.2% 4.4% 4.9% 4.3% 6.1% 8.2% 8.7% 7.4% 9.8% 11.8% 11.4% 10.4% 8.4%
Christina Nothacker 6.2% 7.8% 8.5% 8.7% 8.9% 9.9% 10.5% 10.7% 8.1% 7.7% 7.0% 3.5% 2.5%
Margaret MacCormack 2.3% 3.2% 3.5% 5.0% 4.1% 5.8% 6.3% 6.9% 9.0% 10.6% 13.3% 15.9% 14.1%
Alexandra Wagner 0.9% 1.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 1.8% 3.6% 3.4% 5.5% 5.9% 10.7% 16.0% 46.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.