Race 3B

stu-nelson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Christine Klingler 24.8% 19.2% 18.3% 11.4% 10.4% 6.4% 4.1% 2.7% 1.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Sophie Hibben 16.7% 17.6% 14.4% 14.6% 9.5% 9.4% 7.5% 4.5% 2.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Rebecca Read 5.4% 8.3% 8.1% 9.9% 9.6% 9.1% 10.3% 10.8% 9.3% 8.2% 5.3% 4.1% 1.6%
Allison Cahn 4.8% 5.7% 5.2% 6.4% 8.9% 8.0% 10.4% 8.8% 10.3% 10.2% 9.5% 7.7% 4.1%
Liza Toppa 8.4% 8.5% 8.7% 10.7% 10.0% 7.9% 9.3% 10.5% 8.2% 7.8% 5.9% 2.9% 1.2%
Charlotte Lenz 3.9% 4.0% 5.2% 4.4% 7.7% 7.0% 7.5% 8.3% 12.2% 10.5% 11.1% 12.1% 6.1%
Emma Kaneti 13.5% 13.4% 13.4% 9.9% 11.8% 11.0% 7.7% 7.5% 5.3% 3.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Elizabeth Holiman 3.2% 3.7% 3.7% 4.2% 5.0% 5.3% 6.3% 9.5% 9.8% 9.7% 13.8% 15.9% 9.9%
Christina Nothacker 6.4% 5.7% 7.8% 9.6% 7.6% 9.6% 9.6% 10.1% 9.3% 8.5% 8.0% 4.8% 3.0%
Kathryn Bornarth 7.0% 6.2% 6.0% 7.8% 8.4% 10.6% 10.1% 8.4% 7.4% 11.7% 7.5% 5.3% 3.6%
Margaret MacCormack 2.8% 3.1% 3.7% 5.3% 5.0% 6.2% 7.1% 8.8% 9.9% 11.5% 11.6% 14.1% 10.9%
Meredith Julian 2.0% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 4.4% 7.5% 7.3% 6.9% 7.9% 10.3% 13.9% 15.9% 12.1%
Alexandra Wagner 1.1% 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 2.8% 3.2% 5.8% 5.9% 10.6% 15.6% 47.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.